cb

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says that it's the most conservative player in an industry filled with gunslingers.

The keepers of the Dow Jones Industrial Average must have felt insurance-less after the defrocking of AIG (NYSE: AIG) (Cramer's Take), so it's fitting that they added Travelers (NYSE: TRV) (Cramer's Take) to the list, even as I would have preferred Ford (NYSE: F) (Cramer's Take) or Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) (Cramer's Take).

They needed a financial that wasn't a bank and there aren't many out there that still trade at anything but desperate levels or weren't saved by the government.

The Dow's sell-off from 14,000 and the accompanying investor reluctance to deploy capital has created bargains, and Chubb is one.

In general, analysts expect Chubb's (NYSE: CB) financial strength and resultant market share gains from weaker insurers exiting business lines to offset a likely incremental decline in FY2009 revenue.

Analyst upgrades:

• Banc of America/Merrill upgraded DPL Inc (NYSE: DPL) to Neutral from Underperform following the settlement agreement with staff of the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio on Electric Security Plan.
  
• Friedman Billings upgraded SeaBright Insurance (NYSE: SBX) to Outperform from Market Perform on valuation as they believe shares are oversold at current levels. Despite upgrading, the firm lowered its target price to $14 from $16.
  
• JP Morgan upgraded AT&T (T) to Overweight from Neutral as it believes upside earnings revisions are likely in 2009 due to the company's conservative wireline margin outlook. The firm finds the stock's valuation attractive at current levels and raised their target on shares to $28 from $24.
• Chubb (NYSE: CB) was upgraded to buy from Neutral at UBS.
  
• Cascal B.V. (NYSE: HOO) was raised to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse.
  
• Healthcare Realty Trust (NYSE: HR) was upgraded at Keefe Bruyette to Outperform from Market Perform.

Analyst upgrades:

• Citigroup upgraded shares of Akamai (NASDAQ: AKAM) to Buy from Hold following the company's Q4 results as they believe fundamentals are stabilizing. The firm raised their target price to $22 from $12.
  
• Baird upgraded Theravance (NASDAQ: THRX) to Outperform from Neutral. The firm said the company looks poised to realize the two-product success necessary to drive profitability, and Horizon will likely play a role in succeeding $7B+ Advair. Note that last night Theravance/Glaxo (GSK) reported positive results for Horizon.
  
• RBC Capital said Aeterna Zentaris (NASDAQ: AEZS) is on the cusp of a Cetrorelix deal and has turned more positive on shares. Shares were upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform.
  
• Marvell Tech (NASDAQ: MRVL) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman and added to the firm's Conviction Buy List.
  
• Sangamo BioSciences (NASDAQ: SGMO) was raised to Buy from Neutral at Merriman.
  
• Arthur J. Gallagher (NYSE: AJG) was upgraded at Piper Jaffray to Buy from Neutral.

It was July 1, 2008 when I first posted Serious Money: Five stable stocks for troubled times. The title speaks for itself. This update, after nine weeks and horrible market conditions, is through Friday October 3, 2008.

The index for comparison is the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, which closed on June 30, 2008 at 1,280.00. The S&P closed Friday at 1,099.23 , down 14.12%.

Each of my five picks is beating the market and three of the five are actually up despite crushing news in the financial sector, unemployment and housing. Congress did pass a Wall Street backstop/bailout bill that President Bush has signed, but only after adding another 450 pages and $130 billion to the amount. Although the five stocks have averaged a 0.75% loss, as intended, they easily beat the S&P by 13.37%.

Here are the five stocks that I still think are worth considering. For my original rationale see the linked story above.

1) Johnson and Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) -- when recommended, the stock closed at $64.34 and paid a 2.89% dividend yield. It closed Friday at $66.16 -- up 2.75%. JNJ was featured in Barron's this month as the most respected from the top 100 companies in the world.

2) Teva Pharmaceuticals ADR (NASDAQ: TEVA) -- when recommended, the stock closed at $45.80 and paid a 1% dividend yield. It closed October 3 at $46.08 -- up 0.06% 0.62% Teva (of Isreal) is the largest generic drug company in the world and just got bigger through the acquisition of Barr Pharmaceuticals last month.

The Dow Jones is down around 300 points again (Update: closed down 450) so it's time to revisit my stable stock picks to see how they are holding up. Each of my five picks is beating the market and all of them are up despite crushing news in the financial sector every day since my last report.

The prediction business is highly speculative, but I gave it a try anyway, searching for stocks that would hold their value. This update is a spot-check of my earlier post, Serious Money: Five stable stocks for troubled times. The closing prices are from yesterday but these companies are doing well in today's down market too as the government steps in again and bails out AIG with $85 billion.

The standard for comparison is the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, which closed on June 30, 2008 at 1,280.00. The S&P closed yesterday at 1,213.59, down 5.47%. The percentage gains for the stable stocks do not include dividends. They are up 4% for a 9.47% advantage. The volatility in the market today may alter some of the data points so expect an after market update. Update: the following five stocks remain ahead of the market but they did turn down in the last hour.

1) Johnson and Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) -- when recommended, the stock closed at $64.34 and paid a 2.89% dividend yield. It finished at $69.80 -- up 8.48% -- and is trading up this morning. JNJ was featured in Barron's this week as the most respected from the top 100 companies in the world. Final Update: down $-0.29 to $69.51

2) Teva Pharmaceuticals ADR (NASDAQ: TEVA) -- when recommended, the stock closed at $45.80 and paid a 1% dividend yield. It finished at $45.96 -- no change -- and is trading slightly down this morning. Teva is the largest generic drug company in the world and just got bigger throught the acquisition of Barr Pharmaceuticals. Final Update: down $-1.25 to $44.11

Analyst upgrades:

• Merrill upgraded shares of General Motors (NYSE: GM) and Ford (NYSE: F) to Neutral from Underperform on expectations for fundamentals to improve in 2009.
  
• Citigroup upgraded Chubb (NYSE: CB) and Travelers Group (NYSE: TRV) to Buy from Hold as they expect the company to benefit from the AIG (NYSE: AIG) fallout. The firm raised Chubb's target to $57 from $56 and Travelers Group's target to $51.50 from $49.50.
  
• Credit Suisse upgraded shares of SAP AG (NYSE: SAP) to Outperform from Neutral as they believe margin expansion can drive higher profitability.
• JetBlue (NASDAQ: JBLU) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Argus.
• Goldman raised Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) to Neutral from Sell.
  
• NetLogic (NASDAQ: NETL) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Piper.

Analyst downgrades:

• JP Morgan downgraded Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) to Underweight from Neutral citing the company's early stage pipeline and generic competition.
  
• Merrill downgraded Unilever (NYSE: UL) to Neutral from Buy as they believe the incoming CEO is unlikely to bring a major restructuring or split up the company.

I was out all morning and returned to my desk to find employment and retail numbers sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbling down 345 points today. That made me think it was important to check out how stable my stable stocks -- stocks with the ability to ride out this bearish run -- were doing in bad times.

This update is a spot-check of my earlier post Serious Money: Five stable stocks for troubled times, to see how my picks are holding up so far. Closing prices are for today.

The standard for comparison is the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, which closed on June 30, 2008 at 1,280.00. The S&P closed today at 1,236.82, down 3.37%. The percentage gains do not include dividends. Four out of five of my picks beat all the indices; CB was close.

1) Johnson and Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) -- when recommended the stock closed at $64.34 and paid a 2.89% dividend yield. It finished at $70.45 -- up 9.5%

2) Teva Pharmaceuticals ADR (NASDAQ: TEVA) -- when recommended the stock closed at $45.80 and paid a 1% dividend yield. It finished at $47.92 -- up 4.63%.

Well, the market was in the dumps yesterday and is even worse today. So this may be a good time to check on my list of stocks for those looking for equities that are stable enough to ride out this bearish storm.

This update is a spot-check of my earlier post Serious Money: Five stable stocks for troubled times, to see how my picks are holding up so far. Closing prices are for August 12, 2008.

The standard for comparison will be the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, which closed on June 30, 2008 at 1,280.00. The following are the five stocks with closing prices from July 1.

1) Johnson and Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) -- when recommended the stock closed at $64.34 and paid a 2.89% dividend yield. It finished at $71.70 -- up 11.44%

2) Teva Pharmaceuticals ADR (NASDAQ: TEVA) -- when recommended the stock closed at $45.80 and paid a 1% dividend yield. It finished at $46.41-- up 1.3%.

3) Chubb Corp. (NYSE: CB) -- when recommended the stock closed at $49.01 and paid a 2.64% dividend yield. It finished at $48.39 -- down 1.26%.

Updating the story with the final numbers heading into the week end. The market looked sad again today, so I thought I would spot-check Serious Money: Five stable stocks for troubled times, to see if my picks, (suggested watchlist considerations) were holding up...so far so good, sort of...

The standard for comparison will be the Standard & Poors 500 Index, which closed on June 30, 2008 at 1,280.00. The following are the five stocks with closing prices from July 1.

1) Johnson and Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) closed at $64.34 and pays a 2.89% dividend yield. (NOW $66.53 -- up 3.4%) finished at $66.26 -- up 2.98%.

2) Teva Pharmaceuticals ADR (NASDAQ: TEVA) closed at $45.80 and pays a 1% dividend yield.( NOW 42.58 -- down 7%) finished at $41.78 -- down 8.78%.

3) Chubb Corp (NYSE: CB) closed at $49.01 and pays a 2.64% dividend yield. (NOW $47.51 -- down 3%) finished at $47.56 -- down 2.96%.

After seeing the interest in yesterday's Serious Money: Five stable stocks for troubled times, I decided to track the stocks on a quarterly basis to see how they hold up over time (otherwise, what would be the purpose of discussing them in the first place?).

I said that all five have shrewd, conservative management teams and have been in the right place, at the right time -- and prepared. The standard for comparison will be the Standard & Poors 500 Index which closed on June 30, 2008 at 1,280.00. Although my original story was published yesterday, I will be using the second quarter end point for my five stocks as well.

1) Johnson and Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) closed at $64.34 and pays a 2.89% dividend yield.

2) Teva Pharmaceuticals ADR (NASDAQ: TEVA) closed at $45.80 and pays a 1% dividend yield.

3) Chubb Corp (NYSE: CB) closed at $49.01 and pays a 2.64% dividend yield.

Six months of 2008 are now behind us and the stock market has not been a friendly place to most investors. Stability that was once found in household names that were industry giants is gone, and they have now been brought to their knees.

Many of them were the stocks we might have looked to in the past for stability, so you can be sure I put forward my five candidates with a little trepidation, but forward I go anyway. First a little review is in order.

Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) dropped from around $53 per share last year to around $30 in January and we can buy it today for around $17. Even at that price Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) has downgraded it to a sell and thinks there is more bad news to come. Citigroup was the largest bank in the world. Not any more.

General Motors (NYSE: GM) was the largest car maker in the world. That was before the stock tumbled from $43 to its current $11 range. A crushing blow to long time investors hoping that someone in the company could stop the ship from sinking.

Concur Technologies (NASDAQ: CNQR) provides software applications that automate corporate travel and expense management. Its flagship program provides the process and information for management to reduce manual checking, improve internal controls, increase business policy compliance, speed up reimbursement, and increase expense report accuracy. The software features Web-based modules for tracking, submitting, and processing reports. Other offerings manage employee requests for vendor payments, manage the planning of corporate meetings and group travel, and search for fraud. Customers include Chubb (NYSE: CB), J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP) and Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN). Compuware (NASDAQ: CPWR) and Oracle (NASDAQ: ORCL) are competitors.

The company pleased investors last week, when it reported fiscal Q4 EPS of 15 cents (ex-items) and revenues of $35.75 million. Analysts had been expecting 9 cents and $34.29 million. Management also guided Q1 EPS to 13 cents (8 cent consensus), Q1 revenues to $46.0 million ($43.3M consensus), FY08 EPS to 70 cents (62 cent consensus) and FY08 revenues to $200.0 million ($194.5M consensus). Canaccord Adams and Broadpoint Capital subsequently declared the stock a "buy" and established $40 price targets.

If you have ever been in charge of reviewing expense accounts, you known that uniformity and good organization are factors that can make the job go a lot easier. There is an outfit in Redmond, Washington that has help for the weary executive along that line. It has the whole business reduced to a science ... a computer science.

Concur Technologies (NASDAQ: CNQR) provides software applications that automate corporate travel and expense management. Its flagship program provides the process and information for management to reduce manual processing, improve internal controls, increase business policy compliance, speed up reimbursement, and increase expense report accuracy. The software features Web-based modules for tracking, submitting, and processing reports. Other offerings manage employee requests for vendor payments, manage the planning of group travel, and search for fraud. Customers include Chubb (NYSE: CB), J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP) and Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN). Compuware (NASDAQ: CPWR) and Oracle (NASDAQ: ORCL) are competitors.

The company pleased investors last week when it reported fiscal Q3 EPS of 15 cents and revenues of $33.3 million. Analysts had been expecting 8 cents and $31.9 million. Management also guided Q4 EPS to 13 cents (8 cent consensus) and Q4 revenues to $33.6 million ($33.46M consensus). Cantor Fitzgerald, RBC Capital Markets and McAdams, Wright, Ragen subsequently reiterated "buy" ratings on the issue. The share price popped on the news and has since been consolidating the gain in a bullish "flag" pattern. Prices frequently exit flags moving in the same direction they were traveling when they entered them. In this case, that would be to the upside.

Brokers recommend the shares with three "strong buys," four "buys" and four "holds." Analysts see a 30% growth rate through the next year. The CNQR Sales Growth rate (23.93%), EPS Growth rate (87.50%), Net Profit Margin (30.50%), Return on Assets (21.59%), Return on Investment (27.59%) and Return on Equity (34.28%) compare favorably with industry, sector and S&P 500 averages. Institutional investors hold about 95% of the outstanding shares. The stock is one of those used to calculate the S&P 600 SmallCap Index. Over the past 52 weeks, it has traded between $14.20 and $28.18. A stop-loss of $22.35 looks good here.

Larry Schutts is a contributing editor for Theflyonthewall.com and the Vice-President of Stockwinners.com.

Insurance giant Chubb Corporation (NYSE: CB) last month reported solid first-quarter 2007 earnings of $710 million in net income, $1.71 EPS, compared to $672 million, $1.58 EPS in 1Q 2006. Operating income increased a respectable 5% to $634 million, with operating income per share increasing 8% to a record $1.53. Loss and expense ratio was slightly higher in 1Q 2007 than in 1Q 2006. Chubb was able to post profits despite the fact that net written premiums declined 2% to $2.9 billion for the quarter. The 1% decrease in US-based premiums was more than offset by a 7% increase in premiums outside the US. Chubb's catastrophic reinsurrance business declined by 69% but that was due to Chubb's decision to sell its Re-Harbor Point unit. Income after taxes from property and casualty investments increased 9% to $305 million.

The Chubb personal insurance segment grew 6% to $840 million for 1Q 2007 in terms of the value of premiums with higher catastrophic losses in 2007 than 2006. Despite the major slow down in the home building industry, Chubb's homeowner insurance unit grew 7% while consumer automobile premiums declined 5%. Chubb's commercial insurance declined slightly to $1.3 billion for the quarter, with a renewal rate of 84% for US premiums. Chubb specialty insurance, including professional liability insurance, was flat at $681 million.

Chubb has plenty of money and used $605 million to repurchase almost 12 million shares of its stock. There are still 28 million shares available on the open market. In order to expand its repurchasing program, Chubb offered $1 billion of subordinated capital securities during 1Q 2007 to raise funds for accelerated repurchases. For the time being, Chubb is sticking with FY 2007 operating income per share of $5.00-$5.40. The stock recently closed at $55.64, up $0.38.